CommunityFortress

After an exciting week of cp_yukon with a lot of matches between teams at the top of the standings, and some very unexpected blowouts, we’re heading into the final week of the regular season on cp_granary. From what I have heard, the jury is still out on whether there will be 12 or 16 teams in playoffs (up from 8 last Season), a decision that will be made sometime after February 12th. According to djfivenine’s math, teams with at least ten wins will definitely qualify, which only 5 teams currently have. 7 other teams have 8 or 9 wins, making this a key week to see who ends up in playoffs. Today, I will be making arbitrary assertions about who I think will win some of the closest/most important matchups, commonly known as predictions.

Week 8:1

Apocalypse Gaming (11-2-0) VS Lore’s Merry Men (9-3-0)
AG had a fantastic week last week, making up a match against Hostile Faction on Freight and winning 5-2, then beating a strong Gentlemen’s Club 5-2 on Yukon. LMM still has to play one Yukon match, but they had an easy 5-0 game against RoOSports last week. In the end, I can’t see LMM doing too much against an extremely solid AG, especially on Granary, a map that they actually practice.

AG>LMM  5-1

Gentlemen’s Club (10-4-0) VS eXpertise (11-3-0)
Both of these teams have been picking up serious steam, GC due to a bunch of roster changes and eXpertise because of some good ol’ dedication, I suppose. eXpertise is coming off of two huge wins, a 5-3 over Vicious Gaming and a 5-2 over Sneaky Charger last week, with some ridiculous numbers put up by shakr (51-24 against Sneaky Charger). Gentlemen’s Club destroyed Sneaky Charger 5-0 without smaka, their starting demoman, but in SC’s defense, Lopert was sleepy. However, GC did drop 2-5 to AG last week, which is probably a bit of a buzzkill. In the end I think that eXpertise’s stable roster for most of the season has likely given them a lot of chances to develop good synergy on Granary, something that GC won’t have as much of being a newer roster.

eX>GC 5-3

Control Alt Defeat (9-5-0) VS Area 51 (9-5-0)
If CAD wasn’t getting a likely FFW versus a dead 50 Caliber, and if Area 51 wasn’t hitting an easy matchup in Butt Town, and if we were positive as to how many teams would qualify for playoffs and if I were any good at math, I might be able to ascertain that this match would one with a lot on the line for both teams. However, they’ll both likely have at least 10 wins so qualifying for playoffs won’t be a problem. Nevertheless this should be a good match. CAD has added a ton of new members since the beginning of the season, with only Fabri remaining from the original roster that actually plays together (I think). Notably, noun, general badass and former VPolice member in one of the seasons that they fell apart two matches into the season, is now on their roster, as is primo who I’m shouting out too for being a G. Area 51 lost a couple to Gentlemen’s Club, but replaced them with teto and Breather if I’m not mistaken. All told, this should be a very close back and forth match. Had CAD not just picked up noun (and I’ve been told he is playing Scout), I would give the match to Area 51, but Fabri and noun are going to be a force that I don’t think Area 51 will have a solid counter to. Add that to primo’s solid DM and high damage output and I think CAD will be able to lock this down.

CAD>A51 5-4

High Koala Tea by Freddy (7-7-0) VS Rusty Buttholes (7-5-0)
This is a big week for Rusty Buttholes. They still have two outstanding matches-one against Apocalypse Gaming on Yukon and one on Badlands against Hostile Faction. Their other match this week is against Gentlemen’s Club. It’ll be tough for Rusty Buttholes to win any of those three matches, and even if they do a playoff spot is not necessarily guaranteed depending on how things shake out. If they want to have a chance at qualifying, this match is must win for them. Both of these teams are coming off loss streaks of 4 against solid teams, and High Koala Tea was able to put up 1 round against eMg on Yukon while the Buttholes got 5-0’d. However, I think Rusty Buttholes wants this playoff spot more than High Koala Tea. Ingin is already looking for a new team for next season and has said that he doesn’t think his team has a shot at playoffs (with a match against AG later this week that’s somewhat understandable). Also, the core of Rusty Buttholes JUST missed qualifying in the 8 team playoffs last season, with technically a better record that the 8th seed but with a loss against them in the matchups. That means they’ll be out to prove they can qualify and hang with the top teams in open, and I think that drive (and CTJ and turtLe hard countering YZ50) will give them the win in this match.

RB>HKTbF 5-3

Week 8:2

eMazing Gaming (12-1-1) VS Lore’s Merry Men (9-3-0)
Lore’s Merry Men’s second chance this week to ensure their playoffs spot, unfortunately it’s against the top seed in open. Best of luck to them, but I can’t see them standing in the way of Tyrone’s ultra-manly PANDA BEAR HAT.

eMg>LMM 5-1

Gentlemen’s Club (10-4-0) VS Rusty Buttholes (7-5-0)
Rusty Buttholes will have to have a very good game to stop Gentlemen’s Club on Granary given smaka’s explosive play on that map. Ultimately I don’t think RB’s heavy classes are solid enough to take on sting and idiot Harbleu.

GC>RB 5-2

QUICKIES
Apocalypse Gaming>High Koala Tea by Freddy 5-1
eXpertise>Crack Clan 5-0
Sneaky Charger>Crack Clan 5-0
Vicious Gaming>RoOSports 5-0
Area 51>Butt Town 5-2
Hostile Faction>TEAMBAD 5-1
Hostile Faction> RoOSports 5-0
TEAMBAD>Epidemic 5-3
Apoplexy Industries>yaug don’t want team name 5-3


SPECIAL EXCELLENT SUPER BONUS
Predictions of matches from past weeks that haven’t yet been played and possibly never will.

eMazing Gaming (12-1-1) VS Sneaky Charger (9-3-2) on Freight
This match, from mid-January, was supposed to be played when Sneaky Charger was looking very strong, beating Hostile Faction 5-3 on Freight earlier, and when eMg was looking a little sloppy, dropping two rounds against eXpertise in a boring 4-2 on the same map. However, since then, Sneaky Charger has looked a little less dominant, losing the Gentlemen’s Club 5-0 and eXpertise 5-2 most recently on Yukon. eMg, on the other hand, still only has that one close loss to HF on Turbine, and has beaten some good teams to get to where they are. It could’ve been different a month ago, but I think eMg will have this in the bag if/when it gets played.

eMg>SC 5-3

Vicious Gaming (9-3-1) VS Sneaky Charger (9-3-2) on Badlands
This could actually be a very close match, and will ensure that VG doesn’t get rusty with their two easy matches this week. I think if Sneaky Charger is on their game they could beat Vicious Gaming, but VG did take one more round off of eXpertise on Yukon than Sneaky Charger did. Given SC’s inconsistency I’d say VG will likely be able to lock this one up.

VG>SC 5-3

Hostile Faction (8-3-0) VS Rusty Buttholes (7-5-0) on Badlands
Hostile Faction has actually yet to play a match on Badlands, but given boogie’s reputation as one of the top Demomen in open and HF’s Scouts being strong enough to counter RB’s, I think that HF will be able to run through RB on this map quickly.

HF>RB 5-1

Apocalypse Gaming (11-2-0) VS Rusty Buttholes (7-5-0) on Yukon
Barring an extraordinarily good game from RB’s Scouts, I think that AG will have this one locked down especially considering their powerful Scout combo.

AG>RB 5-2

Hostile Faction (8-3-0) VS Vicious Gaming (9-3-1) on Turbine
Hostile Faction proved themselves to be strong on Turbine, given eMg their only loss of the season when the two played. Unless VG can come up with some very innovative strategies, I think boogie and crew will be able to run away with this one.

HF>VG Score: who knows, it’s Turbine.