This was originally an article for MGE, but with the site down and the LAN starting in less than 12 hours, these had to make it up. So, without further ado, my LAN predictions and analysis:
With the LAN right around the corner, it's time for some preds! Unfortunately, EG won't be making an appearance at this one, so we're left with 3 teams duking it out: coL, blight, and eMg. coL will take a bye through the first round and face off against the winner of blight vs eMg. Aside from that, anyone could play anyone, so I'm going to break down each potential matchup, and give a flow of what I think will happen.
So, let's start it right off with the first match of the playoffs:
blight vs eMg
These two teams are each others opposite in terms of playstyle, which has produced some of the most interesting matches of the regular season. eMg plays a very controlled and tight game, while blight prefers to run all over their opponents and come out on top of the ensuing chaos. A jump from mackey into the yard is a called play, a sure sign that the combo is following (unless he just got tired of playing soldier and decided it was time for some spy – you know, it happens), while an airborne harbleu doesn't give away much more than: “There's probably someone else running in here, from somewhere.” The winner of any game between these two will be decided by which team can do a better job on imposing their playstyle on the other. If blight is forced to play the slow, push-by-push style of eMg, they're going to lose. If blight keeps eMg off-balance and regrouping, they'll be capping through the points with ease.
Regular Season Head-to-Head
eMg > blight 4-3 (yukon)
eMg > blight 5-4 (badlands)
Blight and eMg met up twice in the regular season, resulting in two games decided by two rounds. I would treat this as more of an indication that “this can go either way” than anything else, unless blight really has some sort of mental block against taking the last round from eMg (I doubt it). If anything, looking at eMg's long history of matches won by one round, I would just say that they perform in OT, so it's up to blight to not let them get there.
Map Predictions
blight > eMg: ashville, badlands, granary, gravelpit
Despite ashville being mackey's map, I'm giving blight the edge on it because their run-you-over style works so well on it, and while the cute engineer and spy gimmicks can be effective, blight has no qualms with busting out the double heavy and putting it away. As for the rest, I'm predicting in blight's favor because I think they will be able to keep the pace too fast for tyrone and co. to handle on the big 3. I do admit though, if eMg can keep it together and show us their devastating spire push, they could take blands, and gpit will probably come down to whether blight can sweep through the points in <5 mins, or if they'll give eMg time to start streaming bodies in off a level 3 teleport and carrying guns into the C point. Gran I'm giving to blight just on the basis that I think blight's soldiers will carry through the mid: while tyrone is calling the position, plat will be focusing on his airshot to take mackey out of the picture, and with sick 0-delay LAN rockets, hitting the jumper on the ground just isn't quick enough.
eMg > blight: coldfront, viaduct, yukon
Snow maps are blight's worst enemy. It's stupid to lose because your demoman throws a sticky at the wrong team every so often, but that's just how it is (until someone makes warmfront). Putting that aside, I think that eMg's controlled play really works well on viaduct, though blight can do some crazy stuff on that map, so it's hard to give a big advantage on that one. I think it's just too hard for soldiers to be especially effective on coldfront, so eMg should take that considering a) Platinum won't (shouldn't?) be destroying everyone, and b) mackey's off-classes will be very valuable. Yukon is eMg's map just because it's almost impossible to play it fast, and the best blight can do it try with mixed success.
Everyone loses: gullywash
I hope these teams don't face each other on this map for obvious reasons. Here's a hint: it has something to do with respawn times and 450hp.
Player Predictions
Platinum vs Tyrone
I'm going with Platinum on this one. Tyrone's calling is essential to eMg's playstyle, but my opinion has always been that it's best to leave the strat to the medic and the aim to everyone else, and I think it shows. I mean, how many times have you watched Platinum end a combo fight on yukon last with a triple kill of one rocket? Ahem: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgN90M3nbf0#t=3m30s
Harbleu vs Mackey
When the rocket launchers are out, I tend to favor Harb. Every time I die to one of these soldiers, I ask myself: “How stupid was it that I just died?”. With mackey, the answer is generally “somewhat stupid, but I could see that.” When Harbleu jumps in, get his first rocket surfed, then look straight up and airshot, or land a near-useless 50 damage shot that pushes you into a blind midair pipe (!?!?). However, there's a lot of value in mackey's off-classing despite the standard STV trash talk, so it's hard to pick a clear winner here.
Smaka vs B4nny
Online, I would favor b4nny on mid fights and say it's close everywhere else. However, b4nny underperformed at the last LAN – whether that's due to the walls being thicker in Dallas or just first-time nerves, I would say that eMg's success at this LAN hinges on whether b4nny can be his usual blind-detting jesus-piping self or not. As for smaka? As long as he can see what he's shooting at, he's solid.
The rest
I don't have too much to say here. Whenever playing against eMg, you always have to watch out for Yz50, and ggyggly(ggygygygyg) has proven that he too can step it up, but mesr and oPlaiD are no slouches, and should be able to keep Yz's rampages to a minimum. Blacky probably has a bit of an edge on Shade medic-wise, and he's undoubtedly a strong LAN player (if you recall how terrible he was in S6 versus how well he played at LAN), but I think a few misguided ubersaw hits here and there will even things out (hopefully Randy will manage to stay connected to the server for more than 5 minutes at a time, as well).
Summary
I think eMg will come out on top of this first round match. The first two maps being viaduct and coldfront is just rough. I'd like blight to surprise me on one of these and take it to three maps, but I think they'll need to wait for a more favorable map pool before they get anywhere. If this goes as I expect, we'll be heading to a second round match of...
coL vs eMg
Out of anyone, eMg is probably the least happy about EG not being able to play. Shared mumble aside, eMg had a chance to completely dodge playing coL, but now there's no way to win without seeing the meatcat. Why should eMg be unhappy about playing coL? I think the answer lies in the... (that's right, I used an ellipsis as a transition twice in a row)
Regular Season Head-to-Head
coL > eMg 4-1 (viaduct)
coL > eMg 5-2 (gullywash)
coL > eMg 4-2 (ashville)
Ouch. 0-3, and having watched these games, I can tell you that they weren't all that up-in-the-air either. If you want to dive further into the stats (who doesn't!?), eMg went 0-2 against coL last season, and 1-4 against blight-fanom (the current coL is composed of 3 players from each of those teams), with their only win being squeaked out 5-4 on mainline. That gives a painful 1-9 history for eMg against coL. While I'd love to be “eMazed” and see the “coL curse” be broken, I have no reason to believe it will be.
Map Predictions
coL > eMg: everything but yukon
coL is basically really terrible at yukon. I know “sniper map” + “carnage” doesn't add up to “bad”, but that's how it works out in this case. Also, eMg must have put a ton of hours into yukon at some point in the last year, because they play the map pretty much as well as it's possible to be played. Yukon isn't anywhere on the list right now, and coL can just pick something else with their first-seed advantage, so eMg may not have the chance to use this trump card. As for the rest, the aforementioned coL curse will probably be too much to overcome. If eMg has a chance anywhere, it will be on badlands mid, resting on the shoulders of b4nny vs justin.
Player Predictions
Relic+TLR vs Tyrone+Mackey
I know that relic is technically the pocket, but watching them play, it strikes me that relic plays the “passive soldier” and tlr plays the “aggressive soldier”. coL's soldiers switch roles faster than mackey switches classes, and I think this is the main reason behind their success in this matchup. Tyrone doesn't have the turret-esque aim of TLR or relic, and mackey is more accurately described as playing a “pick class” than being a soldier, so there may or may not be all that much help coming from there. Faced with this, I don't think that eMg's combo can stand up to coL's, and this is going to kill them.
TheFragile vs Shade
Contributing to the combo problem is the difference in these two medics. Shade has been playing medic for two seasons after being a demoman of middling success, while Fragile has been playing medic pretty much forever and, in this writer's opinion, is pretty much the boss as far as that's concerned. Tyrone will need all the help he can get in uber fights, and with Fragile milking it for an extra 2s each time, it's going to be rough.
Justin vs B4nny
This is eMg's one shining hope for winning against coL. I can't say that justin has done badly this season, considering that it's his debut on demo, but he's still slower and less useful than both b4nny and smaka, so if eMg is going to get a win, it's going to come from here. However, as mentioned in the blight vs eMg prediction, b4nny pretty much has to perform or his team will be doomed.
Enigma
Maybe it's just because I'm a terrible scout, but once again, I have little to say about the scouts. Carnage is guaranteed to get a few 5-meatshot combo kills, Yz is bound to go on some monster sprees. Carnage and enigma are oft-touted as the “best scout pair in the world”, but if we cast our minds back to last season, he did terrible at the LAN. If enigma underperforms again while ggyggly is on his game, eMg could very well pull this off, led by b4nny and their scouts. If not... well, good luck.
blight vs coL
Here we are at the final possible matchup for this LAN. If you've managed to wade this far into these preds, you're almost done – all that's left is a bunch of “I don't know” and “it depends...”. Let's take a look at the stats.
Regular Season Head-to-Head
coL > blight 4-3 (viaduct)
blight > coL 5-1 (yukon)
Well, it's hard to say anything about that. A coin-flip 4-3 win for coL on viaduct, and a decisive victory for blight... but on coL's weakest map. There's really nothing that can be drawn from this.
Map Predictions
blight > coL: yukon, badlands, gullywash
coL, yukon, you know the story. Advantage goes to blight for badlands and gullywash just because of smaka's power on mid (I mean, there's no double sticky jumps to miss, so...). I've said the rest in these other map breakdowns.
coL > blight: viaduct, coldfront, granary, gravelpit
Viaduct is in coL's favor thanks to carnage sniping. As I mentioned before, blight has some weird strats to pull out here, so the scale isn't tipped especially far towards coL, but they still have an edge. I think coL's advantage on coldfront should be obvious to anyone that hour long slugfest vs EG (which coL lost 4-5) – they know how to handle coldfront if they can produce a game like that. Blight's not that bad at coldfront, but they have nothing to recommend them there (plus it's a snow map). Gravelpit has always been coL's map for various reasons (8-0 on it over the last 3 seasons). I'm giving gran to coL just based off the strength of their soldiers – I'll go more into that in the next section.
Either: ashville
I thought about it for a bit, and I honestly have no idea who will win on this one. It also may or may not be played.
Player Predictions
Relic+TLR+Fragile vs Platinum+Harbleu+Blacky
I don't think there's as big of a difference here as there is between coL and eMg, but coL's combo play is definitely just a bit stronger. Being able to make a push leading relic or TLR at any time is just so valuable, while blight's options are Plat or... not a great uber. Harbleu makes plays, but he doesn't manage ubers like the other 3 soldiers here, and playmaking is limited on any map with limited space (I'm looking at YOU, granary). I'll also note here that Fragile is a more consistent medic than Blacky – the only thing Blacky really has going for him is that he occasionally makes huge plays off the ubersaw. I'd set the over/under on the # of times that happens (and he lives) at 2.
Justin vs Smaka
Smaka's got this, sorry justin. It's closer than it was at the start of the season, but you're not a demoman yet.
Enigma (again)
If enigma plays well, mesr and oPlaiD will put up a decent fight against coL's scouts, but it will be a losing battle. If enigma isn't pulling his weight, carnage will win enough 1v2's for meatshot vol.5, but he won't do enough to change the outcome of the match.
Wrapup
So, what does it all boil down to? Most of the players coming in to this LAN are known quantities, so the winner will be decided by how the less consistent pieces are performing. I think that coL has the best shot to take the whole thing, especially since they're coming in as the top seed and getting a bye, but at the risk of sounding like a broken record, it's hopeless if enigma doesn't play up to par.
Either way, blight is a very dangerous team, and although I predicted them to lose in the first round, the loser's bracket match has a much more favorable map set. If blight meets up with coL, it could go either way. eMg's only hope here is to break their chronic losing streak against coL, which almost entirely relies on b4nny doing work and enigma dropping the ball.
I'm going to go with what I hope will happen (that is, everyone plays in top form) and give my final predictions as:
1st- coL
2nd- blight
3rd- eMg
4th-lpkane
Either that or I'll be way off, justin will get outplayed, and coL will get rolled.
Oh, and blight will win finals if the other team's flights are too early (I jest, I jest).
-Torin "Sigma" Stepan
Comments
oh, and relic's roaming now
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