After this, we’ll know for sure who ESEA-Open’s Season 10 top team really was, and eXtv’s on the front lines with Vhalin casting tonight’s match alongside eXtine himself! And guess what else? LASER BEAMS PYYYOUR signed on to help cast! After a pretty streamlined end-of-season, we saw Open talent streaming out of the woodworks over the last few weeks during Playoffs. Who says there’s no such thing as second chances? Now we’re down to the season’s #7 ex-Submit a Ticket and #5 WITNESS 40lb on cp_badlands, with another go ‘round on cp_gravelpit_fixed in case we aren’t convinced yet!
Click the jump for match info!
Match info:
eX-Submit a Ticket vs. WITNESS 40lb
Map: cp_badlands
Tonight, Feb 16 @ 10:00pm EST
The teams:
eX-Submit a Ticket (eXtv.)
waxpax (medic)
Gobiner (demo)
turtsmcgurts (scout)
nonis (scout)
tooth (soldier)
Killing12 (soldier)
WITNESS 40lb (+40lb)
mypocketblows (medic)
Faceronin (demo)
Starfire (scout)
Phife (scout)
Frio is my waifu (soldier)
Ska (soldier)
My prediction:
cp_badlands
These two teams have never gone head-to-head in an official match, so we don’t have history to build from. If we start by discussing only numbers on a webpage, WITNESS 40lb is looking pretty good. Aside from dealing out over one hundred thousand (100,000+) extra seasonal damage and 33 more ubers, the 40lbers have somewhat less of a dependency on pure DM (death match) ability, winning a higher ratio (9 to ticket’s 6 seasonal) of maps of the 5 capture-point type. They also have more official matches of this map-type under their belt, since falling to the lower bracket post-season after losing to Jamtown Jesus Jambori on koth_pro_viaduct_rc3 forced them to play two matches that eX-Submit a Ticket didn’t. This brings their total season-and-post-season “cp_” wins to 14, 4 more than eXtv’s 10 total for season 10. These statistics, however, also show us that Ticket does have greater fragging capacity, with about four hundred fewer seasonal deaths than WITNESS total.
It also looks like eX-Submit a Ticket should build their ubers faster. mypocketblows of WITNESS 40lb is what I’d define as “stubborn.” He’d sooner go without uber than get in a situation he thinks is too dangerous or go a route he isn’t comfortable with. waxpax from Ticket’s medi-gun should stay occupied, but I have to say I wonder whether he’ll live to use these advantaged ubers. Except for his demoman, his teammates don’t often fall back to his location, instead forcing him to run from one defensive position to the other. This takes him out of cover, and makes him more vulnerable to snipers. Additionally, when teammates are nearby, they position themselves in locations behind and at random “o’clocks” that keep him “spinning around” in search of teammates. He literally spends more time trying to find teammates than potential threats.
40lb’s medic has a much better view of the field, literally. He positions his crosshair so that healed teammates are rarely front-and-center (read: more strafe, less “w”), and checks defensively vulnerable areas, such as doors, often. If an eXtv soldier tries to bomb in on him, he’ll know. waxpax, on the other hand, may not see the rocket that kills him, and his teammates don’t seem to have the awareness to prevent these attacks.
eX-submit a ticket will likely fall prey to sticky traps, as well. Their demoman, Gobiner, rarely uses them. He plays very aggressively and in sight, and he takes too much damage. He, the medic, and their scout nonis rely on the other team having a lower (aim) accuracy percentage than is safe to assume. Though Gobiner has some dodging skills and likes to show them off, he still gets in over his head and relies too much on the team’s medic. Few of his heals are crit heals, and he doesn’t keep control of health packs even when positioned near them. He should be an easy target for 40lb because he spends very little time buffed or even at full health. Likewise, Killing12 waits too long to fall back and should be an easy pick as well. He seems to over-use the equalizer, willingly leaving his medic without a heal target for that extra speed boost and the health-pack the medic will likely need in a few seconds. If WITNESS 40lb target those two consistently, they should find pushes quickly at 6 on (the lower-damage-dealing) 4, with an easy medic pick after.
They may hit a snag, however, in the scouts eXtv.turtsmcgurts and eXtv.nonis. If soldiers+40lb aren’t prepared for these two, they may lose their medic repeatedly because once Ticket’s scouts (particularly nonis) see the opportunity for a medic pick they commit to it. Even if WITNESS’s soldiers don’t catch on early enough, I could see this going one of two ways. Since Ticket’s scouts don’t often play together or focus a single target, starfire—who seems like a bit of a loose cannon—may distract enough with continuous off-sidesing and back-cap attempts to keep his medic out of their crosshairs.
When defending cp_badlands’s final point, mypocketblows+40lb plays on the stairs on the right side (defense), even before attaining ubercharge. Though he’s less vulnerable to snipers than if he were playing near spawn, if Submit a Ticket uses their uber advantage he won’t have anywhere to run, so even if they lose the uber battle they can ensure WITNESS does not gain the advantage. Honestly, I might suggest a bomb-pick, stickies, or even a sniper placed by the barrels pre-uber since he does occasionally peek. It might give eX-Submit a Ticket the advantage they need; and honestly, I think they definitely need an advantage here.
My guess:
eX-Submit a Ticket < WITNESS 40lb (2-5)
cp_gravelpit_fixed
Neither of these teams are strong on this season’s Grand Finals tiebreaker, with eX-Submit a Ticket losing both Week 4 matches, 2-0 to Jamtown Jesus Jambori and 2-1 to SYOPS TF2. Though WITNESS 40lb won their Week 4-2 match with a score of 2-0, it was against Animals with Guns, a team that fell out of the running for playoffs consideration early in the season. 40lb lost the week’s first match against Slay Mode, 0-2.
On offense, both teams keep their medic in spawn, but mypocketblows from WITNESS 40lb does come out to help cap point A “if the coast is clear.” He doesn’t seem very used to playing against teams who run spy or sniper, so either of those two classes may give eX-Submit a Ticket an advantage. He tends to step out of doorways with a full ubercharge more often than waxpax from Ticket does, and he doesn’t seem to watch his back—or at least keep it against walls or near sentries—as often. Though both medics are willing to leave the safety of “short hallway” before reaching a full charge, mypocketblows seems to drop down pre-uber more often, usually at around 80%. This leaves him vulnerable to attacks other than headshots or backstabs. Ticket chooses pushes a little more carefully on this map.
These teams approach the final point completely differently. While Submit a Ticket waits in the A-C connector, builds uber, and then pushes in together (unless they see some other advantage), the bulk of WITNESS 40lb tends to harass the point, sending their soldiers and demo to the point several times before they attain a full charge. Though it keeps the other team busy, their medic is more vulnerable than if they stayed and built as a team.
Though 40lb uses double-engineers to build behind point B, it looks like they build too far out of the shadow. Though the location may allow them to make “picks” on Blue retreating from the point, their location looks vulnerable to snipers from spawn, and has less capacity to reach the windows. If it comes down to this map, things may swing in the direction of eX-Submit a Ticket.
My guess:
eX-Submit a Ticket > WITNESS 40lb (2-1)
Post-match links:
Map 1: cp_badlands
Download the STV demo
-or-
Skip it and view results and statistics
Map 2: cp_gravelpit_fixed
Download the STV demo
-or-
Skip it and view results and statistics
